Prime Minister Keir Starmer is rapidly losing public support — his approval rating has plummeted to just 22%. That’s the same level of backing currently held by Kemi Badenoch, leader of the opposition Conservative Party. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage, the head of Reform UK, has surged ahead with a 36% approval rating, making him one of the most popular political figures in Britain.
The early May local elections dealt a blow to the traditional political establishment. Farage’s party secured 677 local council seats — more than the combined total of Labour and the Conservatives (417). Even the Liberal Democrats, who won 370 seats, failed to keep pace. In this context, speculation about Farage potentially becoming Britain’s next prime minister is no longer fringe chatter.
A Fall Long in the Making
Starmer’s decline in the polls didn’t start overnight. According to YouGov, 51% of Britons now disapprove of his leadership. Back in December 2024, Ipsos recorded a record low: only 27% of respondents said they were satisfied with Starmer’s performance, while 61% expressed dissatisfaction. For comparison, Gordon Brown stood at 23% in his first months, Rishi Sunak at 22%, Boris Johnson at 20%, and even Margaret Thatcher once dipped to 3%. Yet none faced a similar combination of economic hardship and deepening political fatigue.
The primary concern: the economy. Starmer had promised growth and renewal, but instead, the UK now teeters on the brink of stagflation. Inflation is projected to reach 4% by autumn, driven by rising energy prices. GDP growth in Q1 2025 was effectively zero. Unemployment could hit 5% by 2026. A worsening migration crisis is adding to the social pressure. Analysts now forecast economic growth of just 0.75% this year — half of what had been expected in November.
Labour’s much-touted “fresh start” after 14 years of Conservative rule has largely stalled. Major social reforms, including changes to the healthcare system, are underfunded. Migration policies have failed to produce results: illegal Channel crossings are up 20% year-on-year. Even Labour’s traditional base — the working class — feels abandoned, with real incomes falling by 3% and housing and utility costs reaching new highs.
The Rise of Farage
Amid this political vacuum, Nigel Farage is enjoying a striking comeback. Reform UK is outperforming both major parties in local contests and gaining ground on the national stage. Farage, never shy about his ambitions, is building his campaign around simple, provocative slogans: “Take back control of our borders,” “Stop paying for foreign wars,” “End stagnation.” The message, while radical to some, is resonating with voters.
Reform UK’s strategy targets those long neglected by mainstream politics: anti-immigration voters, Eurosceptics (even post-Brexit), and those disillusioned by political correctness. Farage’s brand of blunt, populist rhetoric is making inroads in areas once dominated by the Conservatives. He now claims he will raise £40 million for his general election campaign, and says new donors are already on board.
Even Kemi Badenoch acknowledges the challenge. “Anything is possible,” she said when asked if Farage could become prime minister. “My job is to ensure he doesn’t, because he doesn’t have answers to our problems.” But the Conservatives’ losses speak louder than her words: 677 seats lost in one night. Labour fared little better, losing 199. Reform UK, from a standing start, now controls seven counties and holds five seats in Parliament.
Systemic Limits — For Now
Still, Farage’s path to Downing Street isn’t straightforward. Britain’s electoral system, designed to ensure stability through a two-party structure, tends to suppress third-party breakthroughs. As political analyst Igor Kovalev notes, “Votes for third parties are often discarded in the national parliamentary system. Britons understand this, and still largely view Labour and the Conservatives as the real contenders.”
But for how long? If the economy continues to falter and neither mainstream party delivers, Reform UK may capture an even larger share of the electorate. Farage, like Donald Trump in the US, is tapping into a desire for a “strong hand” and an end to business-as-usual politics.
What Comes Next?
Farage’s foreign policy stance includes scaling back aid to Ukraine and cutting international spending. Still, he can’t be labelled pro-Russian. The anti-Russian consensus in the UK remains strong across the political spectrum, and even a Farage government is unlikely to break from the current diplomatic line.
Yet the idea of Prime Minister Farage — once inconceivable — now seems increasingly plausible. If Starmer cannot reverse the economic decline, and Badenoch fails to revive the Conservatives, Britain may soon find itself led by a figure who was until recently considered a political outsider. At that point, the question won’t be if Farage can lead — but how soon it will happen.